Unhealed Darfur… Nyala Massacre

On July 31st 2012, I was a little bit sick that day; actually the sickness was a result of fasting without eating enough food. It was Ramadan and many friends were fasting under NISS custody, probably they were tortured and find no mercy in the month of mercy. It was a nightmare for the families to gather at breaking the fast and a beloved person is missing. The intensity and frequency of protests were decreasing in Khartoum. All the elements of frustration were there in addition to hunger and low blood pressure. I decided to spend that day just laying on my bed. Not to do any thing and basically to avoid FB and twitter. I heard my father sadly saying There is No Power but from Allah. I run to his room and asked him whats happening he said ” they killed the kids in Nyala”
I’ve just turned backwards and slept. This was too much sorrow, anger and sadness to handle. I kept following the news from my dad and my brother. I expected the day after to find the streets of Khartoum are full of protesters demanding justice for Nyala massacre victims but nobody were there. I wasn’t surprised; more than 300,000 persons were killed in Darfur; 2,000,000 were displaced and nobody were protesting against this in Khartoum. I was also surprised by the shocked faces of Khartoum people; I kept saying yeah they shot fire on peaceful protesters, they are killers, nothing is new about this; the killers are sill there. What would we expect from a government killed more than 300,000 without held responsible and being accountable to these crimes. Simply they’ll continue killing and firing them. I was so angry and so many people were angry too, but we didn’t took the streets. Khartoum anti regime protesters waited Friday prayers and gathered again in Wd Nubawi mosque. Although many of them have mentioned that Ansar sect were not happy with Friday protests heading from their mosque since Shozaz Alafag Friday on 6th July 2012. On 13th July; the Kandake Friday some Ansari women quarreled with protesting women telling them that It seems they didn’t came for the prayers rather than the “protests” and they are ruining some marriage ceremonies. Finally on Friday August 3rd, when people gathered to pray for the souls of Nyala Massacre victims Imam asked them not to distort the mosque mandates and activities by organizing protests.
Although it was a big frustration for the protesters but the whole issue were distorted. Most of the activists rather than thinking about managing protests from other place than Wd Nubawi mosque; were busy with analyzing if Umma party and Ansar sect betrayed them or not; was this failure due to lack of coordination or it revealed the party standing point.  The whole issue of solidarity and demanding justice for the Nyala massacre victims’ were forgotten.

It took me 3 weeks to write this post; because I didn’t know how can I write it. Even-more; I was questioning the value of blogging about peaceful protests firing and murder of children without taking the streets.I’m convinced that justice would never be achieved under this regime. The atrocity of Nyala massacre could never be reflected in a blog post; at the same time I could never pretend that nothing happened and continue writing about trivial things.

Although protests subsided now but it will revive again soon or later. This wouldn’t be the last massacre in Darfur and we must never forget the victims. July 31st will always be a sad day witnessed the killing of 13 peaceful protestors and the injuring of more than a hundred of them.

#SudanRevolts

The Effect of Political systems & Political Institutions and their Characteristics on the Incidence of Civil War

Abstract:

In this paper I’m going to discuss the relationship between political systems, political institutions and their characteristics and how they affect the incidence of civil wars.

First I would give a brief definition of each element and the factors that correlate them.

Introduction:

In order to understand the relation between political systems, institutions and their characteristics and how they impact internal conflict, I would like to mention the definition of each variable.

Political system & institutions:

There are many definitions of political system, but they are more related to the notion that it is the system of power relationships between the ruled and the ruler; it was defined by Easton as “A continuous operating mechanism with demands and supports going in inputs and authoritative decisions and actions coming out as outputs” (Mahler S. George:1995, p12)

Demands in political system are expressions of opinions that an authoritative allocation with regard to a particular subject matter should or should not be made by those responsible from doing so.

Supports are those inputs between political system and environment that remains after demands have been subtracted. (Mahler S. George: 1995, p13)

Political institutions are the objects in the political system.

Incidence of Civil War:

Civil war is defined as an internal armed conflict generates at least 1000 deaths. They are the more extreme form of political violence. In the literature of civil war, there are many factors causing civil wars mainly the grievances of certain group of population influenced by political and economic reasons.

There are many arguments regarding the incidence and factors affecting civil wars; as per capita income which is a proxy for the state over all financial, administrative police and military capabilities, the lower of income per capita decrease the opportunity cost of engaging in civil wars.

Also the weakness of the government as the rebels can expect a higher probability of success.

Population size also can be a factor increasing the risk of civil wars, the higher population size, increase the number of potential rebels.

The existence of mountains and large distance with natural fortune within the country also increases the risk of civil wars as it provides a refuge for the rebels.

The availability of natural resources can increase the payoff for the rebels.

Political rights and civil liberties decrease the risk of armed conflict as the attenuate discrimination and repression. (Querol R. Marta: 2004, p456)

Politics affecting social conflict:

Political system and its characteristics can increase the polarization in societies with different religious and ethnic structure

Political instability depends on the social and economic structure of a country, and the stability of political system can prevent the ability of conflict.

Conflict can be avoided if the interests are not highly divergent.

Also political instability favors corruption and hence affects growth and related investments negatively, highly polarized societies (usually polarization comes as a result of political instability) tends to have radical changes in economic policies.

There is a direct relationship between political instability and growth, if the political institutions are functioning well they may prevent social conflict and foster growth.

The interest in studying characterizing political system that are socially stable and no group want to rebel against the system Usually rebellion aims to exchange the current political system, the winner will impose their most preferred political system irrespective to whether it is stable or not.

Characteristics of Political System and Civil Wars:

Inclusiveness:

Inclusiveness is defined as” the ability of a system to avoid political exclusion. Democracy is just one dimension of the concept”. It is particularly relevant to heterogeneous societies with ethnic differentiations. (Querol R. Marta: 2004, p456)

Democratic governments with multiparty decision makers are more inclusive than democratic government with one decision maker.

There is a basic relationship between the level of inclusiveness and stability of political system. The more inclusive political system, the less likely to experience civil war.

Checks and Balances measures of inclusiveness: It’s the number of decision makers whose agreement is necessarily before policies can be changed.

There are two facets of Checks and Balances; Number of actors has veto power and thus can block policies and explicitly on not leaving out any minority group.

The lower Checks and Balances value is the high politically exclusive system and hence the lower degree of inclusiveness.

There is also another measure for inclusiveness through Political System Data; it tends to measure the potential inclusiveness of a system.

The results from the mentioned measures of inclusiveness shows that proportional systems are the most inclusive followed by majoritarian and presidential systems are the less inclusive.

Inclusiveness and political stability:

Political system can be regarded as stable if no group is better off by triggering a rebellion.

Proportional system is the more inclusive than majoritarian system, as majoritarian system selects the policy considered ideal by the median voter, the voters may belong to the same group in the case of one party government.

Efficiency of Political System:

Policies may harm the interests of certain groups, to consider the most efficient policy is to minimize the total harm.

The total social benefit is the sum of individuals benefits, should be the rule of collective choice. (benthamite view) (Querol R. Marta: 2004, p450)

Majoritarian system can produce extreme losses if the total loss is minimal one of the groups might experience a large enough loss to challenge the system.

As we are concerned about the political stability; we should avoid outcomes that hurt particular interests. Regarding the stability of policies we should give some weight to how policies are distributed.

Political Institutions and Civil Wars:

Anocracies, which are part democracies and part dictatorships, are more prone to civil wars than pure democracies and pure dictatorships. There is an argument that “A regime that mixes democratic with autocratic features…is likely to indicate political contestation among competing forces and, in consequence, state incapacity” As dictators, too, require political support to maintain their rule, and when they can, they attempt to build coalitions by “encapsulating” or coopting social groups outside of the ruling elite.

Legislature is the key institutional variable that explains civil wars. Under pure dictatorships repress the rebels, Pure democracies allow peaceful disagreement but anocracies neither repress nor accommodate civil disagreement. Nominally-democratic institutions under dictatorship, such as legislatures, elections and parties, are typically dismissed as mere window-dressing

Nominally democratic institutions conceptualized sharply and operationalized through clear observable measures (accountable) and hence when it acts effectively in a democratic environment it can reduce the incidence of civil wars.

We found that the level of democracy affect civil wars, partly democratic countries are more likely to experience civil wars. (Ghandi. Jennifer and Vreeland. James: 2004, p1-21)

References:

  1. Mahler S. George, 1995, Comparative Politics: An Institutional and Cross National Approach, 2nd Edition, Prentice Hall Inc., New Jersey, USA.
  2. Arnold. Guy, 2009, the A to Z Civil Wars in Africa, the Scarecrow Press Inc., UK.
  3. Ghandi. Jennifer and Vreeland. James, 2004, Political Institutions and Civil Wars: Unpacking Anocracy, University of Yale, USA.
  4. Querol.R Marta, 2004, Does Democracy preempt Civil War?, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol21, (2005) 445-465.

رجاءً !! لا تسيؤنا فنحن السودانيين.

“معليش نحن سودانيين”
“ياخي انتي قايلة نفسك في أمريكا ، نحن في السودان”
“اصلاً السودانيين ديل ناس وهم”
“الشعب السوداني ما فيهو فايدة”

اذا كان سلوكك همجي ، وكنت انسان غير متحضر لا تحترم خصوصيات الاخرين …
اذا كنت كثير الهزل بصورة مزعجة ، في محاولة يائسة للتصرف كشخص فكاهي ومسلي ومكسر الجكس …
اذا كنت تحترف مقاطعة المتحدثين ومحاولة السيطرة علي جلسات الحوار وتحويلها الى سرد لبطولاتك الشخصية …
اذا كنت تتحدث بصوت عالي ، خاصة في الموبايل وكأن كل الناس (صمٌ فهم لا يفقهون) …
اذا كنت تلقي النفايات في غير اماكنها بدون أدنى شعور بالخجل من نفسك …
اذا كنت جبان وما عندك قدرة تتحمل فكرة انو التغيير ما حايجي وانت راقد في سريرك وداخل الفيس بوك بالتلفون او اللابتوب قدامك …
اذا كنت من الداروينيين وعندك اعتقاد انو الخواجات متطورين لانو جيناتم احسن مننا ، ما لانهم ناس عندهم طموح وقدرو يصلحو في سلوكياتم …

رجاءً !!

لا تحاول ان تجد العذر لنفسك ، وببساطة تقول عشان أنا سوداني ، لانك ما قادر تعترف بانو الغلط فيك ما في السودان .
في سودانيين شجعان ، طموحين ، منظمين ، بيحترمو الناس والبيئة الحولهم
اذا ما قادر تصلح في سلوكك أو ما عندك الرغبة ، رجاءً !!
أمشي الجهاد أو شوف ليك جنسية تانية .

التضامن والتظاهر … بين الاسافير والواقع

بعد حالة الاحباط التي اصابتني ، قررت عدم المشاركة او حتي التأييد لاي دعوة للتظاهر ،خصوصاً اذا كانت الدعوة عن طريق الفيس بوك.

في يوم 30 يناير 2011 ، بلغ عدد الحضور والمؤيدين للتظاهر أكثر من 15000 (العدد دة طبعاً في الفيس حيث الحضور لا يكلف أكثر من “كليك”) منهم عدد كبير جداً من اصدقائي المقربين وبعص المقيمين خارج السودان ، واليكم ما حدث:

طلعت من البيت بدري شديد ، وصلت المكتب ، كنت برفقة عدد من زميلاتي متفقين نطلع المظاهرة ، اتشجعت جداً لانو ما مارقة براي وزي ما بتقول امي موت الجماعة عرس ، استشرت اخوي الكبير مقيم برة السودان “بيهمني انو زول من الاسرة يكون عارف” دعا لي بالتوفيق وقال انو بالوضع الحاصل في السودان ما حيقدر ينصحني انو ما امرق.

في مكتبي اتسرب خبر اني طالعة المظاهرة ، واتعرضت لي تحرش ومضايقات لا حصر لها ولا عدد وصعب شديد انو الزول يحكيها كلها في البوست دة ونتيجة للمضايقات دي كل زميلاتي قرروا انهم ما طالعين ، المهم انو اصحابي العاملين “لايك” علي دعوة المظاهرة اتصلت بيهم حوالي 10 صباحاً كدة عشان نبقي مارقين ، في اتنين اكدو انهم جايين واتنين قالو لسة في مكاتبهم ولانها بعيدة من مكان المظاهرة حيجوا متأخرين شوية. كلهم كانو بيصروا علي انو ما تمرقي لحدي ما نتصل بيك ما عدا واحد.

الحصل في 30 يناير اني ما مرقت ، واحد كان مصر انو اعداد المتظاهرين كبيرة شديد ، واحدة ما تمت 5 دقايق في شارع القصر وتمت مطاردتها ، واتنين لي يوم الليلة ما وصلو.

احباط تاني :

ابتداءً من صفية لأي زول اعتقلوهو وختينا صورتو في الفيس بوك وقلنا “كلنا فلان” ، شكل التضامن ما كان بيتجاوز الكيبورد، اي تظاهرة بيكونو قايمين بيها الناس القريبين من شخص الضحية ، وكلها كم يوم وخلاص ، لا بقينا فلان ، لا انصفنا زول لا رجعنا حق.

شوية أمل ؛ البرتقالي ضد الظلم:

حملة قرفنا لارتداء اللون البرتقالي ، تعبيراً عن الرفض للظلم الحاصل ، اجمل شي في الحملة انك لمن تلاقي زول في الشارع لابس برتقالي معناها حتلاقيهو تاني في المظاهرات ، تكون ماشي وبتعاين وبتسأل نفسك ، يا ربي كم من الناس حيكونو برتقاليين. القصور الوحيد في الحملة انها قايمة علي الاعلام الالكتروني ودة بخليها محصورة في شريحة محددة من المجتمع ؛ الناشطين ومستخدمي الانترنت.
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استيتس واحد… صورة واحدة

مئات من الشباب والشبات السودانيين اتفقوا والتزموا في يناير 2012 انو يختو صورة واحدة لعلم باهت ويكتبو استيتس واحد تعبيراً عن الرفض ، وعن قدرتهم علي تنظيم نفسهم وفعلاً نجحت الحملة لانها اثبتت قدرة الناس علي التنظيم لكن برضو بيظل التنظيم دة علي مستوى صورة البروفايل والاستيتس.استيتس واحد ... صورة واحدة
شكراً للبرتقاليين ، وللعلم الباهت ، رغم احباطنا لسة ممكن نعمل حاجة لاننا ما برانا ، مع بعض ممكن نغير.
أكيد حنغير.

أخيراً:
ما تنسوا عوضية عجبنا ، ما تنسوا منعم رحمة ، و النسينا قضاياهم ، عشان حقهم وحقنا ما يروح.

الكلمة السحرية “من أحببت”

قال تعالى: “انك لاتهدي من أحببت ولكن الله يهدي من يشاء وهو أعلم بالمهتدين” القصص 56

لاأدعي المعرفة والالمام التام بمعاني القران الكريم وتفاسيره ، ولكن بحدود تفكيري البسيط الذي قادني الي جوهر الاية الكريمة عن مفهوم الهداية وشروطها.

الهداية بالنسبة لي اتباع الطريق الصحيح ، الطريق الصحيح حاجة مجازية لانه لاصحيح مطلق ؛ بهدف الوصول لي نتائج بالضرورة ما تسبب ضرر لي انسان اذا ما كانت حتفيدو.

الهداية ممكن ربنا يلهم الزول انو يختار طريقو ومرات الزول بيتوه وبيحتاج للنصح ، وهنا بتجينا الكلمة السحرية التانية “من احببت”

اكيد اذا ما حبيت الزول ما حتنصحوا ، وهنا بيجي الفرق بين النصح والقاء الاوامر والتدخلات السافرة في شئون الغير، اذا نصحت زول ما بتحبو والعلاقة بينكم كانت “ندية” من المتوقع انو النصيحة دي تكون تدخل وحشرية من الناصح ، لانو الناصح دة مصلحتو شنو عشان ينصح.

اما اذا كانت علاقة القوى بين الناصح والمنصوح بترجح كفة الناصح ، فان النصيحة تتحول الى امر واجب التنفيذ وتتجرد من قيمتها المعنوية لأن اي افعال تنتج عنها سيخالطها احساس الخوف او التهديد ، من ما يجعلها غير ذات فائدة لكلا الطرفين.

أولاً واخيراً ان الهداية من الله ، ولكن هذه ليست مدعاة لانو ما نجتهد عشان نغير في الناس الحوالينا ، ولو نحن ما بنحبهم أكيد ما حنغير فيهم

بقول في الكلام الكتير دة كلو لانو لمن زول مربي ياخد الاية دي عذر ، ويكون مقتنع في جواهو انو تلاميذو ديل ما مربيين و بليدين وحثالة ، أكيد ما حيقدر يربيهم أو يغير فيهم.

نقطة أخيرة: بالتجربة ما أي زول ببدا كلامو بي يسم الله وبيختم بي والله من وراء القصد بيخاف الله ، كتار بيخطبوا الخطب العصماء وكأنهم ملايكة وأفعالهم بتضر كتيرين وبتأذيهم ، قلوبهم بتفتقر لي حب الناس.

جوة النص: محجوب شريف قال : الما بيحب ما بيحن والما بيحن جلاد.